As battery technology improves and other advantages become more apparent, electric vehicles could make up as much as 20% of the medium duty truck market and 10% in the Class 8 market.Class 4-7 commercial electric vehicle sales could top 100,000 units by 2035, according to ACT Research.

“We believe that electrification will offer a competitive solution for an increasing number of commercial vehicle segments as we look to the decade ahead and beyond,” said Jim Meil, principal, industry analysis for ACT. “In favorable case circumstances – such as oil and diesel prices escalating as they did in 2005, 2009 and 2011 – market take rates for CEVs could get to one-third or higher, depending on the segment.”

ACT’s own numbers for 2019 shows that electric trucks will only account for 2% and 1% of those markets respectively. Improvements in electric vehicle performance and drops in price are expected to open up a wider range of applications and duty cycles. “Initial adoption will likely be in shorter-range hauls with frequent stops and starts, regular and predictable routes, and daily return-to-base for overnight charging types of operations,” said Meil.

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