Corrugated box shipments grew 9% in March from the year-ago period, industry data shows, despite a brief dip in revenue when the pandemic’s initial shock froze up the supply chain. But shipments were again soon boosted by retailers’ overstocking of food, cleaning supplies and toilet paper amid the panic buying so prevalent in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. Shipments continued to climb through the fall, peaking in October, and box makers are on pace to end 2020 with record production to meet this year’s skyrocketing demand.
In fact, retail analysts say, e-commerce sales squeezed in more than two years’ worth of growth since the pandemic began nine months ago. And the corrugated industry is scrambling to keep up: Paper mills are running at full speed and some producers are capping orders and contracting out to smaller companies.
“At some point, yes, there was some pantry loading as people were preparing for what the effect might be of the pandemic, but I think we’re past that point and what we’re seeing here is new consumer behavior,” said George Staphos, a senior analyst covering paper forest and packaging for Bank of America Securities. “Once you establish a new pattern, it’s really hard for it to change.”