University at Buffalo researchers have published a study quantifying how a series of regulations limiting the import of plastic waste to China has affected recycling in the United States. Described in Sustainability, “Impact of China’s National Sword Policy on the U.S. Landfill and Plastics Recycling Industry” analyzes the impacts of China’s Green Fence and National Sword programs. Both imposed strict contamination limits on recyclable materials, and, after National Sword, the landfilling of scrap plastic in the U.S. increased. The study was led by Aditya Vedantam, assistant professor in operations management and strategy, Nallan C. Suresh, UB Distinguished Professor in operations management and strategy, and Khadija Ajmal, a doctoral student, all in the UB School of Management; and Michael Shelly, an environmental/ecological economist at UB’s RENEW Institute.
In 2013, China introduced Green Fence, a program which involved intensive inspections of incoming loads of scrap material. In 2016, China announced restrictions for secondary material commodity imports from the U.S. The following year, China launched its National Sword program, which imposed strict contamination limits on recyclable materials. Finally, in 2018, China introduced a 0.5% contamination limit along with a ban on many recyclables, including plastics. Before these restrictions, the U.S. shipped most of its plastic scrap overseas, particularly to China.
Controlling for oil prices, producer price index and amount of plastic scrap exported, the researchers found that Green Fence had no statistically significant impact on the amount of plastic landfilled in the U.S. However, the quantity of plastic landfilled in the U.S. increased by 23.2% following the implementation of National Sword. “With waste generation consistently growing, coupled with fewer options to export plastic scrap, the domestic supply of lower value plastic scrap has drastically exceeded existing demand. This has resulted in a decline in prices, which reduced the profitability of recycling and increased the attractiveness of alternate disposal options, such as landfills,” says Vedantam.